Recently one of the mostly-followed corporate finance and valuation professor Aswath Damodaran has updated his metrix of the so called Equity Risk Premia (ERP) for countries around the globle. Unlike in recent year, this year the change in ERPs in some countries has been very significant. This is mostly because of the new phenomena that…
Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…
$PYPL (PayPal Holdings) quick facts: ✅ lost 70% top to recent bottom and 61% top to now ✅ major reasons for sell-off: 👉 Growth stocks hit on higher yields 👉 change in Fed’s stance from ultra dovish to hawkish in fight of inflation 👉 disappointing revenue and profit forecasts for 2022 👉 lower consumer spending…
We had a hell of a day yesterday with GlobalAlphaS portfolio up 5.04%. Main reasons for the performanace: 👉 Long equity hedges netted out in Feb/strat March 👉 Portfolio positioned to gain on the expected (and now materializing) rebound off the correction’s lows as situation around Ukrain descalates and 1st Fed rate hike is behind…
Below you can see Wells Fargo’s latest Fed balance sheet size projections. Recently the Fed has: 👉 announced tapering (Autumn) 👉 begun tapering (Dec 2021) 👉 announced that they plan to speed up tapering vs. what they previously planned (from USD15bn/month to USD30bn/month) (announced after Dec FOMC meeting) 👉 announced that right after reaching net…
Attached you will find a long term Bloomberg graph showing a very important equities characteristic that usually has significant impact on their overall returns in the future – the Real Earnings Yield. This graph shows aggregate data for the $SPX500. What is Earnings Yield (EY)? 🤔 EY is calculated by dividing a stock’s EPS by…
The year is slowly running its course and as December looms just around the corner, more and more institutions are issuing their equity strategies for next year. Before we dive into the next year’s predictions though let’s quickly have a run through what was up so far on equity markets in 2021: ✅ YTD performance…
𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀/𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆), 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗼 :). It’s been another strong week for equities. Especially Japan…
Dear Copiers&Followers, Below you will find a very interesting article about how the Hedge Funds industry has performed so far this year. Here are the basic conclusions from my side: ◼ HFs still struggle to make a competitive race with ETFs and actively managed mutual funds. ◼ No single HF strategy has outperformed the $SPX500…
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗿.𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a great job last week. He gave the market what it wanted (a clearer info on the upcoming…
