𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀-𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗺

Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…

𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗣𝗮𝗹 𝗵𝗮ve 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲?

$PYPL (PayPal Holdings) quick facts: ✅ lost 70% top to recent bottom and 61% top to now ✅ major reasons for sell-off: 👉 Growth stocks hit on higher yields 👉 change in Fed’s stance from ultra dovish to hawkish in fight of inflation 👉 disappointing revenue and profit forecasts for 2022 👉 lower consumer spending…

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮?

Below you can see Wells Fargo’s latest Fed balance sheet size projections. Recently the Fed has: 👉 announced tapering (Autumn) 👉 begun tapering (Dec 2021) 👉 announced that they plan to speed up tapering vs. what they previously planned (from USD15bn/month to USD30bn/month) (announced after Dec FOMC meeting) 👉 announced that right after reaching net…

𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆?

Attached you will find a long term Bloomberg graph showing a very important equities characteristic that usually has significant impact on their overall returns in the future – the Real Earnings Yield. This graph shows aggregate data for the $SPX500. What is Earnings Yield (EY)? 🤔 EY is calculated by dividing a stock’s EPS by…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟯𝟬𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴-𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀/𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆), 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗼 :). It’s been another strong week for equities. Especially Japan…

𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗛𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀

Dear Copiers&Followers, Below you will find a very interesting article about how the Hedge Funds industry has performed so far this year. Here are the basic conclusions from my side: ◼ HFs still struggle to make a competitive race with ETFs and actively managed mutual funds. ◼ No single HF strategy has outperformed the $SPX500…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟯𝗿𝗱-𝟮𝟳𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗿.𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a great job last week. He gave the market what it wanted (a clearer info on the upcoming…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝗻𝗱-𝟲𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻. 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝟴𝟬-𝟵𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲. We saw a few brokers joining the…