𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀-𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗺

Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻?

Many investors scratch their heads these days as to whether the current market circumstances we’re facing constitute a good buying opportunity for stocks. In this short article I am trying to assess this question from three different perspectives: macro, micro and technical. The macro perspective This point of view is possibly the biggest worry for…

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮?

Below you can see Wells Fargo’s latest Fed balance sheet size projections. Recently the Fed has: 👉 announced tapering (Autumn) 👉 begun tapering (Dec 2021) 👉 announced that they plan to speed up tapering vs. what they previously planned (from USD15bn/month to USD30bn/month) (announced after Dec FOMC meeting) 👉 announced that right after reaching net…

𝗔𝗿𝗲 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗹𝘆?

Attached you will find a long term Bloomberg graph showing a very important equities characteristic that usually has significant impact on their overall returns in the future – the Real Earnings Yield. This graph shows aggregate data for the $SPX500. What is Earnings Yield (EY)? 🤔 EY is calculated by dividing a stock’s EPS by…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟯𝟬𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴-𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀/𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆), 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗼 :). It’s been another strong week for equities. Especially Japan…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟯𝗿𝗱-𝟮𝟳𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗿.𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a great job last week. He gave the market what it wanted (a clearer info on the upcoming…

𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵-𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

Dear Copiers&Followers, Those of you investing in Treasuries possibly wondered many times how to be best positioned in different economic environments. I have also got questions about that. So here’s a short playbook for those looking to maximize their performance in that respect. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 In times like now, when we have relatively high inflation…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝗻𝗱-𝟲𝘁𝗵 𝗔𝘂𝗴𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻. 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝟴𝟬-𝟵𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲. We saw a few brokers joining the…

✅ 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 ✅

There’s been and awful lot of new issues arising in the makrets lately, even though from the outside it looks quietish, becuse there’s no volatiliy on aggregate basis. I think it’s important to have a list of current major issues so as to be constantly monitoring of which one of them could be the trigger…

GAS WEEKLY

✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟲𝘁𝗵-𝟯𝟬𝘁𝗵 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨𝗦 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵, 𝟲𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝘂𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝘄. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝗤𝟮𝟭 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿. 𝗔 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴. We got earnings from a big bunch of companies, influding…