𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀/𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆), 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗼 :).
It’s been another strong week for equities. Especially Japan did well being up over 5% as of Thursday afternoon. EU indices on the other hand underperformed a bit, whilst US was nicely up (1,5+2% so far). China also added 2%ish this week (so far), as the tech giant rebounded strong on diminishing uncertainty around the regulatory crackdown – this boat is still in a strom, but there’s sun breaking through the clouds from what it looks.
L𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸
👉 The week kicked off strong with Growth stocks outperforming (and that remained the case pretty much into the week end). Nasdaq Composite mate new ATH. The strenght in tech names started with the end of Jackson Hole meeting, as Mr.Powell gave investors some kind of guarrantee that even if the tapering starts this year, there’s still a far way ahead for any rate hikes to come. As you know of course, Growht names are pretty vulnerable to higher intetrest rates (as their valuations are discounted with higher price of money and investors come up with lower current valuations then).
👉 Tiny retreat of Tuesday, but equities still managed to have a great August – 7th montly gain in a row plus a 3rd straight month of gains above 2%.
👉 Some strategists see risks for September, mainly coming from historical statistics. Only 45% of times $SPX500 was up for month according to stats dating back to WWII. Still it’s just stats. I think stats are generally overrated, because every point in time is different and has different circumstances.
👉 Wednesday – Flat wide market, outperforming Tech stocks again. Also the small caps did well.
👉 $SUN (Sunoco LP) enjoyed a big call from JPMorgan with a target price 90% higher than current market levels.
👉 Thursday did not show much indices added a little bit again, awaiting Friday’s NFPs.
👉 Today we will yet get the NFP report, which is imporant. “Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasized the need for more strong jobs data before the central bank would start to unwind its massive bond-buying program, putting heightened focus on the payroll number. Economists polled by Dow Jones predict 720,000 jobs were added in August, down from 943,000 added in July.” |(CNBC) – going forward payrolls will matter much more than before, because maximum employment is the only Fed target not yet met to start tightening monetary policy.
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 +1,5%, $NSDQ100 +2,1%, EuroStoxx600 +0,5%, $GER30 +0,0%, JPN225 +5,4%.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:
👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: the US yield curve (10y-FF) at 130bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) at 28 bps. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield at 30bps. High Yield Spreads at 3,2. 👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): $GOLD -0,3% on week. 👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: +1,9% on week 👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) -0,6% on week, EURUSD +0,7%.
𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 👉 Today – NFP report (market expects 750k) 👉 Tuesday – EU ZEW + German ZEW 👉 Thursday – ECB rate decision
Best, GlobalAlphaS
