Here’s a quick monthly update on my portfolio:
👉 January 2021 was a corrective month for the GlobalLeadersPortfolio (GLP). The portfolio lost 2,29%. Main reason for the worse performance was the $TLT , which was down 3,1% on month due to a sell-off in long-term Treasuries (10Y yield up from 80bpsish to 100-110bps on month). $GOLD also added negatively to the performance in Jan ($GLD -2,7%).
👉 The portfolio is in an overhaul process that has to do with an inevitable economic cycle through coming as per our macro forecasting tool (Enhanced Aggregate Spread (EAS) of nospinforecast.com). The dynamics of this Recession are so different than any other before that there’s been an additional solution to cycle-dating process needed. Namely, a new sub-phase called Rebound was added to the usual set of 4 periods in the cycle (Expansion, Boom, Recession (Contraction), Rebound, Recovery). This has to do the the behaviour of Adjusted EAS (AEAS) vs. the EAS. I wrote about is in one of my mid-month updates (links below). I invite any of you willing to dig deeper into this issue to visit nospinforecast.com. The service is paid, but worth it (you can contact the author (Robert Dieli) by the sign-up process and say you’re coming from my recommendation.
👉 As an effect of the portfolio changes, which will yet last 2-3 months in my view, the equity allocation was raised from appx 25% as of end Dec 2020 to 47% as of end-of-day Fri 29th Jan 2021. You can find the posts describing the changes done here: etoro.tw/3hR4d6A etoro.tw/2L8c8kg The equity portfolio count increased by 1 ($AAPL (Apple) , SIAScore can be found here: etoro.tw/3qQ6u5t) to 15 stocks and a little position in $SPY .
👉 Consequently the weights of both $TLT and $GLD were lowered and currently stand at 21% and 26% respectively.
👉 The cash position was lowered from 10%ish to slightly above 5% now, but this will yet evolve going forward.
👉 The GLP risk score is being kept within the 3-4 range as planned.
👉 Into Recovery phase the target equity allocation will be 60-70%.
Yours, 🙂👍
GlobalAlphaSearch
Disclaimers: None of the ideas, views and thoughts presented here shall ever be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell stocks,bonds,FX,commodities or any other financial instruments as stated in REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC or the Polish Act of 10 February 2017 amending the act on trading in financial instruments and some other acts. The article is for educational reasons and purely presents private views of the author, thus the author shall not be held accountable for any losses of a third party resulting from any potential trading activities in any instruments, both specifically or by category of assets. The author uses his best knowledge and data from sources believed to be reliable, but makes no representations as to the accuracy of the data.Full Disclaimers&Liability Limitations page.
