𝗪𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀-𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗴𝗺

Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…

𝗗𝗼𝗲𝘀 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗣𝗮𝗹 𝗵𝗮ve 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲?

$PYPL (PayPal Holdings) quick facts: ✅ lost 70% top to recent bottom and 61% top to now ✅ major reasons for sell-off: 👉 Growth stocks hit on higher yields 👉 change in Fed’s stance from ultra dovish to hawkish in fight of inflation 👉 disappointing revenue and profit forecasts for 2022 👉 lower consumer spending…

𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗯𝘂𝘆 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻?

Many investors scratch their heads these days as to whether the current market circumstances we’re facing constitute a good buying opportunity for stocks. In this short article I am trying to assess this question from three different perspectives: macro, micro and technical. The macro perspective This point of view is possibly the biggest worry for…

𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗳𝘂𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟮?

Below you can see Wells Fargo’s latest Fed balance sheet size projections. Recently the Fed has: 👉 announced tapering (Autumn) 👉 begun tapering (Dec 2021) 👉 announced that they plan to speed up tapering vs. what they previously planned (from USD15bn/month to USD30bn/month) (announced after Dec FOMC meeting) 👉 announced that right after reaching net…

𝗔𝗻 𝗲𝘆𝗲-𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗪𝗲𝗯𝗦𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘁 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭

Dear All, I am just back from a 4 day visit in Lisbon, where we pitched for our fast-growing startup project – www.look4dog.com/ . It’s a super elastic search engine for litters and puppies of purebred dog kennels associated with the FCI/AKC/The UK Kennel Club. We’ve got 2500 kennels in our database already, but the…

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹’𝘀 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

Dear Followers&Copiers, A short note on $INTC (Intel) and the price reaction post its earnings release: 👉 Earnings were actually mixed to better than expected: EPS: $1.71, adjusted, versus $1.11 expected. Revenue: $18.1 billion, adjusted, versus $18.24 billion expected. Exp 4Q21 revs $18,3bn vs. $18,24bn exp 👉 The reasons for an 11% drop were actually…