𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸. 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛. 𝗔𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 $GME (GameStop Corp New) 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗮 𝘀𝘂𝗯𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘃𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗯𝗮𝗰𝗸 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝘆 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝘆.
The risk is on again. Save havens struggled this week with $GOLD down close to 2% and $TLT -2,3% on wider long-term yields.
👉 Monday started with a 30% slide in $GME, easing concerns that the frenzy around this stock keeps spilling over to other heavily shorted stocks. Poor Hedge Funds can breathe finally ;). $NSDQ100 led the gains (+2,5% on day), buoyed by $NFLX (Netflix, Inc.) and $AMZN (Amazon) .
👉 Jefferies wrote in a note to investors (source CNBC.com): “The presence of retail investors, rising levels of margin financing and liquidity suggests a growing bubble risk, especially for sectors heralded as the next growth engine but with unclear earnings visibility including EV, climate and biotech. However, the two main triggers that could lead to a serious unwinding across equities are missing.” Those triggers include an earnings collapse and potential monetary tightening. I tend to agree with the last sentence personally.
👉 Tuesday was even more bullish, with indices gaining over 1,5% (best gains since November 2020). The positive sentiment was supported by big earnings due, which came after market close.
👉 $AMZN and $GOOG (Alphabet) both beat expectations. The latter showed a 23% revenues growth and $22.30 EPS per share, adjusted, vs. $15.90 per share as expected. Stock popped 7% to new ATH on Wednesday. $AMZN on the other hand almost doubled what it was expected to report and delivered USD125,5bn in a single quarter revenue. Jeff Bezos announced he plans to step down as CEO, which caused the stock go down 2%.
👉 Weekly jobless claims came out better than expected on Thursday (779k vs. 830k exp.).
👉 Peter Oppenheimer ($GS (Goldman Sachs Group Inc) Chief Global Equities Strategist) said: “We believe that we are still in the early stages of a new bull market, transitioning from the ‘Hope’ phase to a longer ‘Growth’ phase as strong profit growth emerges”.
👉 Other big names reporting last week also mostly beat the expectations. Among them: $EBAY (eBay) , $PYPL (PayPal Holdings) .
👉 Friday January payrolls data came out at -110k net of revisions (small increase in Jan was more than offset by big revisions down to the former two months). Unemplyment rate went down, but mostly due to a drop in labour force, which is not ideal.
👉 All in all equities ended the week around highs on very strong sentiment.
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 +4,7%, $NSDQ100 +5,3%, EuroStoxx600 +3,5%, $GER30 +4,6%, $JPN225 +4%.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:
👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: yield curves steepened across the globe. the US yield curve (10y-FF) is wider again at 107bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) at 22bps. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield curve at 21bps. High Yield Spreads at 3,8.
👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): $GOLD -1,8%, $SILVER 0,0% on week.
👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: +9,1% on week. revival trade continues.
👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) +0,5% on week, $EURUSD -0,8%.
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