Recently one of the mostly-followed corporate finance and valuation professor Aswath Damodaran has updated his metrix of the so called Equity Risk Premia (ERP) for countries around the globle. Unlike in recent year, this year the change in ERPs in some countries has been very significant. This is mostly because of the new phenomena that…
Many (and more every day) market pundits are raising their voices over “an imminent recession due. Given the recent stock market plunge of 20-30% top to bottom dependent on the index taken into consideration, it seems justified to be asking this question indeed. It comes even more out loud, if one takes a look at…
Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…
Many investors scratch their heads these days as to whether the current market circumstances we’re facing constitute a good buying opportunity for stocks. In this short article I am trying to assess this question from three different perspectives: macro, micro and technical. The macro perspective This point of view is possibly the biggest worry for…
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸. 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸. 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗨𝗦 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗨 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗹𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝘀𝗶𝗮 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻. 𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗹𝘁𝗮 𝘃𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿’𝘀 𝘃𝘂𝗹𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆, 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 (𝗣𝗣𝗜 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸), 𝘁𝗮𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀. $SPX500 is now 2% off its…
𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗲𝗿𝘀/𝗙𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝘀𝗼 𝘄𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆), 𝗮𝘀 𝗜 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗯𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗡𝗙𝗣 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴, 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝘁𝗰𝗵 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼𝗼 :). It’s been another strong week for equities. Especially Japan…
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗿.𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗝𝗮𝗰𝗸𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗰𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗱𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁. 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗺𝗲𝗱 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗺𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗳𝘂𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗽𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did a great job last week. He gave the market what it wanted (a clearer info on the upcoming…
𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘀𝗼 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗮𝘁 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗔𝗧𝗛 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻. 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗸𝗲𝗲𝗽𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝘄𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴. 𝗦𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝟴𝟬-𝟵𝟬% 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲. We saw a few brokers joining the…
𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝘀𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗨𝗦 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵, 𝟲𝘁𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝘂𝗽 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗿𝗼𝘄. 𝗜𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗯𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝗤𝟮𝟭 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗮𝗿. 𝗔 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗱𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗢𝗠𝗖 𝗺𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴. We got earnings from a big bunch of companies, influding…
𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀. 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝗮 𝗯𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗽𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗼𝗳 “𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄” 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻. I have writted…
