✅ 𝗚𝗔𝗦 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝟭𝟵𝘁𝗵-𝟮𝟯𝗿𝗱 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝘆 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭 ✅

𝗜𝘁’𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗮 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻𝘀. 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝗮 𝗯𝘂𝗻𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗾𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗯𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗽𝗰𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀, 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗳𝗶𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗽𝗼𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘂𝗺. 𝗔𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗮 𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗼𝗳 “𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘄” 𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗶𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻.

I have writted quite a bit on the latter issue in some of my last week’s posts. You can find them here:

“When is the next big correction going to come?” etoro.tw/3i2CTnX
“Stay Calm and Watch the Fed” etoro.tw/3xZP0ay
“Positioned Well – Wed 21st Jul 2021 update” etoro.tw/3rwsOT0

As I expected and laid out in the above posts, big correction did not materialize and the dip we saw on the break of last week and the week before allowed for some tactical reshuffle that only improved my portfolio’s (GLP) performance. Effectively, whilst many others we bleeding last two weeks, we finished this week nicely up and last week marginally red only. So far this month up 1,7% 😊.

Let’s get to the point now…

L𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸

👉 The weeks started out bad. As the worries around the Delta variant and its impact on the economy spread out, we saw equities facing its worst day since Oct 2020 on Monday. Cruise lines, airlines and energy sector suffered the most of course. Volatility increased (VIX at 25). Tech outperformed, which was one of the reasons why our GLP portfolio performed so well this week. 10Y yields tumbled to 1,17% intraday – hello! where’s the 2%??? 🙂
👉 My favourite citation from Monday: “Billionaire investor Bill Ackman said Monday the spread of the delta variant doesn’t pose a significant threat to the economic reopening as it could speed the pace to herd immunity. “I hope what it does is that it motivates anyone who doesn’t get the vaccine to get the vaccine. I don’t think it’s going to change behavior to a great extent,” Ackman said on “Squawk Box.” “You are going to see a massive, my view, economic boom. … We are going to have an extremely strong economy coming in the fall.””
👉 Since Tuesday we had a 4-day winning streak, as again and again, the expectations of the majority of the market players were not enough for the expected (correction) to happen. CNN’s Fear&Greed Index bounced off its lows at just 17 pts, fears disappeared and good corporate numbers pushed markets to new ATHs eventually later in the week.
👉 By Wednesday EoD equities have regained what they lost on Monday. On the corporate from we had good beats on numbers from: Coca-Cola, Verizon, Chipotle. Netflix disappointed on the other hand.
👉 Thursday: jobless claims for the week of July 17th showed 419k vs. 350k expected – bit of a disappointment, but it did not spoil the party as Tech stocks pushed market higher (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT).
👉 Friday continued bullish pushing the $DJ30 above 35 000 pts.
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 +2%, $NSDQ100 +2,9%, EuroStoxx600 +1,5%, $GER30 +0,8%, JPN225 -3,7%.

𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: 👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: the US yield curve (10y-FF) at 127bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) at 24 bps – narrower. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield at 26bps – also narrower. High Yield Spreads at 3,2. 👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): $GOLD -0,6% on week. 👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: +1% on week 👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) +0,2% on week, EURUSD -0,2%.

𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸: 👉 We have a bunch of big earnings due next week, among others: AAPL, AMZN. 👉 Very important (as each one now) FOMC meeting takes place 27th-28th July. MIND THE FED GUYS!!!! 👉 Debt dispute will stay in headlines as will Janet Yellen.

Best, GlobalAlphaS

Disclaimers: None of the ideas, views and thoughts presented here shall ever be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell stocks,bonds,FX,commodities or any other financial instruments as stated in REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC or the Polish Act of 10 February 2017 amending the act on trading in financial instruments and some other acts. The article is for educational reasons and purely presents private views of the author, thus the author shall not be held accountable for any losses of a third party resulting from any potential trading activities in any instruments, both specifically or by category of assets. The author uses his best knowledge and data from sources believed to be reliable, but makes no representations as to the accuracy of the data.Full Disclaimers&Liability Limitations page.