𝙑𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙡𝙤𝙬 𝙫𝙤𝙡𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙖𝙜𝙖𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠. 𝙀𝙦𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙞𝙘𝙚𝙨 𝙝𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙖𝙧𝙤𝙪𝙣𝙙 𝘼𝙏𝙃𝙨. 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙮𝙞𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙘𝙪𝙧𝙫𝙚𝙨 𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙚𝙥𝙚𝙣𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙜𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙡, 𝙚𝙨𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙞𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮 𝙤𝙪𝙩𝙨𝙞𝙙𝙚 𝙐𝙎, 𝙤𝙣 𝙝𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 𝘾𝙋𝙄 𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜𝙨 𝙖𝙘𝙧𝙤𝙨𝙨 𝙀𝙪𝙧𝙤𝙥𝙚.
April turned out to be a good month in general. $SPX500 is up 5% this month. Will the “sell in May and go away” good old saying turn out true this year again? Time will tell. Let’s see what was up last week…
𝗟𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸
👉 Accelerating recovery put up to the light the issue of rising commodity prices again at the start of the week. Commodities like Corn, $COPPER and alikes hit their record prices in long long years. Also CPI readings from last week were in general above expectations in major countries (esp. Europe). ETFs like SXRS made their ATH last week. Consumer Staples naturally underperformed in such an environment ( stocks like KO, PG, WMT)
👉 “Inflation is arguably the biggest topic during this earnings season,” Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America, said in a note. “Raw materials, transportation, labor, etc. were cited as major drivers of inflation and many plan to (or already did) raise prices to pass through higher costs.” (CNBC)
👉 Home prices data on Tuesday showed a 12% YoY growth vs. 11,2% expected (Case-Shiller Home Price Index). also consumer consifidence hit the highest level since the start of Covid-19, which arguable is a positive phenomenon. Equities generally rallied on Tuesday.
👉 On Wednesday the FOMC kept rates unchanged and pledged no change in the policy in the coming future, which was no surprise. Mr. Powell also denied the possibility of tapering asset purchases any time soon. A nothing-done FOMC really.
👉 The market digested earnings coming out from the the bluechips all week long with GOOG, AMD, MSFT, AAPL and FB at the front. In general the tendency this quarter is that companies beat expectations, but it causes either no rise or even a sell-off in their stocks. The market is just bit tired with the rally. To me it poses some risk of a correction due. May-June tend to be corrective quite often.
👉 $SPX500 made a new ATH on Thursday. AMZN beat expectations in their quarterly report with EPS of USD15,79 vs. USD9,54 exp.
👉 Friday turned out corrective with main names in the red, despite better-tan-expected numbers.
👉 We’re waiting for the jobs data on May 7th.
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 +0,0%, $NSDQ100 -0,4%, EuroStoxx600 -0,4%, GER30 -0,9%, JPN225 -1,3%.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: 👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: yields steepened this week, the US yield curve (10y-FF) at 161bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) at 43 bps. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield at 49bps. High Yield Spreads at 3,2. 👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): GOLD -0,5% 👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: +2,3% on week. 👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) +0,5% on week, EURUSD -0,7%.
Best, GlobalAlphaS
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