Over the last decade the correlation between inflation (measured by CPI YoY change) and the $SPX500 returns (also YoY) was clearly positive and pretty stong. Higher moderate inflation (below 3%) usually meant higher GDP growth, higher EPS growth for US corporations and generally healthy economic conditions. This naturally impacted stocks returns. Lower inflation (perios of…
Attached you will find a long term Bloomberg graph showing a very important equities characteristic that usually has significant impact on their overall returns in the future – the Real Earnings Yield. This graph shows aggregate data for the $SPX500. What is Earnings Yield (EY)? 🤔 EY is calculated by dividing a stock’s EPS by…
Dear Copiers&Followers, Those of you investing in Treasuries possibly wondered many times how to be best positioned in different economic environments. I have also got questions about that. So here’s a short playbook for those looking to maximize their performance in that respect. 𝗛𝗶𝗴𝗵 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 In times like now, when we have relatively high inflation…
There’s been and awful lot of new issues arising in the makrets lately, even though from the outside it looks quietish, becuse there’s no volatiliy on aggregate basis. I think it’s important to have a list of current major issues so as to be constantly monitoring of which one of them could be the trigger…
The history repeats itself every once in a while (sometimes a longer while, if cycles are considered). Below you will see a graph showing $SPX500 all the way back to 2009 with a short explanation of the 4 major periods of the last decade-long bull run of the US economy (ended Feb 2020) and the…
👉 Precious metals have been the choice for many investors over the recent 6 months due to the fact that they’re treated as a natural hedge against higher inflation. 👉 Central Banks keep their stance of keeping inflation expectations/inflation itself at levels higher than sustainable in the long run. This has to do with enormous…
