𝗘𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸. 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗱 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗹𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝗺𝘂𝗰𝗵, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱. 𝗢𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗱 𝗮 𝗳𝗲𝘄 𝗯𝗶𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹, 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗲 𝘀𝗮𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗵𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝟱𝟮-𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀 𝗲𝘅𝗰𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗶𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲, 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝗳𝗲𝗮𝗿.
CNN Fear and Greed Index is now 28 pts (as of Fri close). I wrote a post about this lately here: etoro.tw/36MzPWB Our portfolio performed well compared to some other PI accounts mainly due to exposure to bluechip stocks as well as constant exposure to other assets, not correlated (or negatively correlated) with equities. Our US Treasury holdings (TLT) gained over 1%, whilst Gold was slightly up as well. 👍👍😁😁 All in all the week was a down week though anyway.
L𝗮𝘀𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸
👉 Start of the week we still saw stocks hovering around ATH and looking for some kind of direction, but starting Tuesday market starting to break a little bit.
👉 A continued dialog over Biogen’s FDA approval for its Alzheimer went on, putting pressure on the name.
👉 Strong earnings form names like MorganStanley and other financials did not spark overall buying in the market. A “sell the facts” tendency overwhelmed on Thursday as well.
👉 Friday was pretty choppy and equities traded lower in general to snap a 3-week winning streak. University of Michigan consumer sentiment read for inflation expectations (1year) hit at 4,8% – a level not seen since 2008.
👉 Bridgewater’s Jeffrey Gundlach stays firm with a view that as long as the Feds balance sheet grows the equity markets will most possibly stay around ATHs and perfomr well. I tend to agree with him because I have respect for his knowledge, as well as for the fact that I do not fight the Fed (a losing game from the beginning).
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 -1%, $NSDQ100 -1,9%, EuroStoxx600 +0,2%, $GER30 +0,2%, JPN225 -2,9%.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:
👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: the US yield curve (10y-FF) at 129bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) at 30 bps. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield at 32bps. High Yield Spreads at 3,1. 👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): $GOLD +0,2% on week. 👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: -4,2% on week, lost moslty on global growth dynamics fears 👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) +0,6% on week, EURUSD -0,6%.
𝗠𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗻𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸:
👉 We have a bunch of big earnings due next week, among others: Netflix, CocaCola, Intel, Honeywell, AmericanExpress. 👉 Analysts’ consensus expects a 66% EPS rise this quarter. 👉 Macro front will be quite quite next week. 👉 The US 10Y yield will surely be closely watched as well.
Best, GlobalAlphaS
Disclaimers: None of the ideas, views and thoughts presented here shall ever be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell stocks,bonds,FX,commodities or any other financial instruments as stated in REGULATION (EU) No 596/2014 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 16 April 2014 on market abuse (market abuse regulation) and repealing Directive 2003/6/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Commission Directives 2003/124/EC, 2003/125/EC and 2004/72/EC or the Polish Act of 10 February 2017 amending the act on trading in financial instruments and some other acts. The article is for educational reasons and purely presents private views of the author, thus the author shall not be held accountable for any losses of a third party resulting from any potential trading activities in any instruments, both specifically or by category of assets. The author uses his best knowledge and data from sources believed to be reliable, but makes no representations as to the accuracy of the data.Full Disclaimers&Liability Limitations page.
