𝗪𝗲’𝗿𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗲𝗻𝗱-𝗼𝗳-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗼𝗱 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿’𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗮𝗹𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗵𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀. 𝗦𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗴𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗼𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘄𝗲’𝘃𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟬. 𝗙𝘂𝗻𝗻𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗴𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮 𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝗿&𝗚𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝗴𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗼 𝟲𝟯 𝗽𝘁𝘀.
Markets continue to price in continuous progress towards more normal economic conditions. Vaccine works and rollout continue, Washington keeps negotiating, volatility stays fully under control, the risk is generally on and the dollar naturally suffers which is inline with the authorities’ will.
👉 On Monday the 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙩𝙬𝙤 𝙝𝙤𝙩𝙩𝙚𝙨𝙩 𝙄𝙋𝙊𝙨 – $DASH 𝙖𝙣𝙙 $ABNB (Airbnb Inc) 𝙗𝙤𝙩𝙝 𝙨𝙪𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙧𝙚𝙙 𝙖 𝙨𝙚𝙩𝙗𝙖𝙘𝙠 𝙤𝙣 𝙨𝙚𝙡𝙡𝙨𝙞𝙙𝙚 𝙖𝙣𝙡𝙖𝙮𝙩𝙨𝙩𝙨’ 𝙙𝙤𝙬𝙣𝙜𝙧𝙖𝙙𝙚𝙨 (to Neutral from Buy at D.A. Davidson and to Underperform from Buy at Gordon Haskett respectively). This spurred some concerns over the general state of the market among some commentators, as usually weak performance after IPOs usually means waning demand for stocks. Let’s please remember though just how much these stocks were on debut vs. their IPO price. Indices lost in general on Monday as fears also grew that lockdown measures might be increased into the holiday season.
👉 𝙎𝙢𝙖𝙡𝙡 𝘽𝙪𝙨𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙊𝙥𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙞𝙨𝙢 𝙄𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙣 𝙉𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙢𝙗𝙚𝙧, urging calls from (amongst others) Warren Buffet for a quick resolution of the next stumulus bill negotiations.
👉 𝙊𝙣 𝙒𝙚𝙙𝙣𝙚𝙨𝙙𝙖𝙮 𝙬𝙚 𝙜𝙤𝙩 𝙨𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙛𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮, 𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙖𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙙 𝙖 𝙣𝙚𝙬 $𝟵𝟬𝟬𝙗𝙣 𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙘𝙪𝙚 𝙙𝙚𝙖𝙡. Other Senate reps were saying “a deal could come soon”. The markets added slighlty that day.
👉 On top of that 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙁𝙚𝙙 𝙥𝙡𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚𝙙 𝙖 𝙢𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙢𝙪𝙢 𝙤𝙛 $𝟭𝟮𝟬𝙗𝙣 𝙤𝙛 𝙗𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨 𝙥𝙪𝙧𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙖 𝙢𝙤𝙣𝙩𝙝 𝙪𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙡, 𝙖𝙨 𝙩𝙝𝙚𝙮 𝙘𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙞𝙩, “𝙨𝙪𝙗𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙣𝙩𝙞𝙖𝙡 𝙥𝙧𝙤𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙞𝙨 𝙢𝙖𝙙𝙚”. An interesting thing to note here by the way: over the last 12 months the Fed has created almost 20% of the whole USD-denominated M2 ever created! We’re living in unprecedented times indeed.
👉 New all-time highs reached were reached reached on Thursday even though the 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙅𝙤𝙗𝙡𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝘾𝙡𝙖𝙞𝙢𝙨 𝙬𝙚𝙧𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙣 𝙚𝙭𝙥𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙚𝙙 (885k vs. 808k exp.)
👉 Friday got a little wobbly with the $SPX500 being down even 1% intraday, but in managed to regain most fo the losses just into the close. The wide market index is now settled in above 3700 pts.
👉 𝙀𝙛𝙛𝙚𝙘𝙩𝙞𝙫𝙚 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠𝙡𝙮 𝙞𝙣𝙙𝙚𝙭 𝙘𝙝𝙖𝙣𝙜𝙚𝙨: $SPX500 +1.3%, $NSDQ100 +2.9%, EuroStoxx600 +1.5%, $GER30 +3.9%, $JPN225 +0.4%.
𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀:
👉 𝘽𝙤𝙣𝙙𝙨: the US yield curve (10y-FF) stable at 85bps, the German curve (10Y Bunds-3M) slightly wider at 16bps with 10Y Bunds at -0.57%. EuroArea AAA-rated bonds yield curve stands at 19bps. High Yield Spreads lower each week at 4.
👉 𝘾𝙤𝙢𝙢𝙤𝙙𝙞𝙩𝙞𝙚𝙨 (𝙚𝙭 𝙤𝙞𝙡): Gold ($GLD) +2.35%, Silver ($SLV) +8% on week. Seems like both as trying to resume their growth trends.
👉 𝙊𝙞𝙡: added +5.5% as economy slowly comes back to reality despite the lockdowns.
👉 𝘾𝙪𝙧𝙧𝙚𝙣𝙘𝙞𝙚𝙨: DXY (Dollar Index) -1.2% on week and stays vulnerable, $EURUSD +1.2% highest in 2 years.
Last week’s major macro events
Next week’s major macro events
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